Saturday, April 17, 2010

Breaking Down the Suns

It is generally agreed upon that the Suns are our best possible matchup for the playoffs whether Brandon was around or not. They're weak rebounders, they play mediocre defense, and they really aren't physical. Unfortunately, they're the most high-powered offense in the NBA, well above our sixth ranked efficiency. What is a Blazer team to do? Let's break this down, Bust a Bucket style, position by position.

Steve Nash vs. Andre Miller

Before the Brandon Roy injury, this would have been a big matchup, but now, this is the matchup of the series. Steve Nash is the Suns. He, along with guys such as LeBron James and Kevin Durant, is the definition of the term "valuable player." You cannot imagine the Cavs and Nonics without those guys, and you can't imagine the Suns without Nash. This team wins maybe 30 games with Dragic running the show. Miller is settled in, performing strong since the turn of the decade. We all know Andre can't play defense on Nash, and with that, we can expect Nash to get his shots and his assists. There is a way to stop this, though. Follow the game plan from that ruinous third regular season matchup between the two teams, and attack the Canadian. Andre's best defense against Nash is his offense. Make Steve Nash work on defense low, and drive on him. He needs to force Nash out of the game by making him foul. That's the only way the Blazers this matchup.

Jason Richardson vs. Rudy Fernandez or Martell Webster

We're screwed. Jason Richardson always kills us. Seriously, though, we should hope for Martell Webster to continue his mini-reawakening into the playoffs. This his first time here, and maybe he can bring some of that early-season form he showed off during the first month. His defense coupled with a 3-point percentage above 35% could elevate this matchup to a wash. Rudy can make the Suns play into their largest weakness, ball maintenance, as he could disrupt passing lanes. He's a player who has had his best performances against the Suns, and he's also known for saving his best for the bright lights. That's a lot of what ifs and maybes, so we're probably screwed here.

Grant Hill vs. Nicolas Batum

This is our one defined advantage. Expect Batum to roam on defense, picking up Nash for stints, and disrupting passing lanes. This series could be his coming-out party. There's no way Hill can hang with Batum in any way. The Suns can only hope to get the jeune Francais in foul trouble.

Amar'e Stoudemire vs. LaMarcus Aldridge

Technically, this is going to be the starting power forward matchup, but we should really expect a lot of switches defensively and offensively between the front court duos of both teams, as they both consist of long and lean guys. Amar'e's the closest thing you'll find to a bruiser in this series and has been putting up contract year numbers. LaMarcus has been playing his best low post game in his career over the last month. This matchup goes to the Suns on paper, but LaMarcus definitely has a chance to turn it to his advantage, especially if he brings the effort on the boards.

Channing Frye vs. Mar-cus Cam-by

Starting center Channing Frye (oh how we miss you) is so soft he makes LaMarcus Aldridge look like Charles Oakley on roids with a bad poker debt. He'll float outside to hit threes, but we can expect LaMarcus and Cam-by to switch on these. Marcus Camby's rebounding will be the other big determining factor of this series. Blazers want to control the ball and control pace. Rebounding's the way to do it. We rebound, the Suns can't fast break. Suns don't fast break, they don't get easy shots. They don't get easy shots, their league-best offensive efficiency disappears. It's easy to pick up that efficiency when you're getting high percentage shots down low in transition. It's much more difficult getting them later in the clock. The Blazers have experience doing this - the Suns don't. Dominate the boards, win the series. It all comes down to the bechanted one.

Benches

There's some worthwhile guys playing in the back with Leandro (The Artist Formerly Known as Leandrinho) Barbosa, Dragic, Blazer reject Jarron Collins, and Jared Dudley. Simply put, though, they don't make you afraid. Although, screw Jared Dudley. I hate that guy.

The Prediction: The realist in me sees this series going to Game 7, with the Suns pulling it out. The hopeful me believes the Blazers can pull a win out in Game 1, change the identity of the series and shock the Suns at the Rose Garden in Game 6.

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